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group would overthrow the old and
corrupt dynasty and establish their
own, which in turn would eventually
succumb to the same cycle.
A prominent British Jewish figure, Lord
Jonathan Sacks, has suggested that Ibn
Khaldun is a significant influence upon
al-Qaeda. A movement motivated by
Islam defeated the Russians in
Afghanistan and, partly as a consequence
of that defeat, Soviet Communism
collapsed. Now they are fighting against
corrupt Western governments and also
against the corrupt regimes which
support the West, such as in Saudi
Arabia and Yemen.
I have no special insight into the
motivations of al-Qaeda, but the
significant thing is that the dynamics of
that movement conform to the pattern
recognized by Ibn Khaldun: a
revolutionary movement inspired by a
“purer” form of Islam that seeks to
overthrow regimes it sees as corrupt and
those who support them.
Let us not deny the fact that their view
of many Arab governments and
particularly of the West as corrupt is
plausible. One of the immediate
consequences of the Allied attack on
Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was the flood of
pornography unleashed upon the
country. Such corruption is
symptomatic of the West in the eyes of
strict Muslims, and they are not wrong.
Therefore one of the possible
consequences of what is happening in
the “Arab Spring” is the establishment
of Islamicist movements in power.
There is evidence that that is what is
happening in Libya where one of the
first acts of the new regime was to
legalise polygamy, which Gaddafi had
opposed. It is ironic that this is the
country where the West played the
greatest role in defeating the old regime.
I spoke previously of Christianity as
providing the conditions for successful
democracy. One of those preconditions
is that the successful party must govern
for the good of, and in the interests of,
the whole nation; not just of the group
which supported it. That flows from
God’s command to us to do good to all
men. That Christian ethos is not
commonly accepted. Where sectarian
and tribal mentalities prevail the more
common thing is to punish the
opponents.
A radical Islamic party winning means
persecution. In turn that means the
party presently in power must use all
means to stay in power, knowing that
to lose power is a death sentence.
Hence the brutality with which the
Alawis in Syria and the Sunnis in the
Gulf states have clung to power. That is
not to approve what has happened
there. It is simply asking whether the
West has a practical contingency plan,
if a change of government in any of
those places unleashes a bloodbath.
There is another alternative. Many
people in these countries do not want
Islam, particularly the more legalistic
forms of Islam. That may be partly
because they have been influenced by
Western secularism, but it also flows
from experience. Islam is now deeply
unpopular in Iran. Hence a great
interest in Christianity that at the
moment is being held down by political
and social pressure. Mass turnings to
Christ are a real possibility. Please note
that that anticipation is coming from
native Christians involved in these
countries.
So what will be the outcome of the
“Arab Spring”? Military dictatorships,
maybe immediately, maybe as a result
of attempts at democracy descending
into chaos? Or radical Islamic regimes
opposed to the church, to the West and
to forms of Islam that are not their
form; hence persecution and mass
migrations such as has happened with
Christians from Iraq as a result of the
bungled Western attack? Or revival of
the church and turning to Christ
whether directly or in reaction to
legalistic Islam? Maybe an Islam-wide
war of Sunni against Shi’ite with stupid
Western governments taking sides? We
simply do not know what will happen
and all these outcomes are quite
possible in different places. Personally, I
would put Western-style democracies as
lowest on the list of possibilities.
Professor Noel Weeks is a Sydney
University historian.
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